It might sound like something that would come out of a Richard Scudamore think tank, but a "premier competition" without it's most premier teams becomes slightly less alluring. Most notably, last years competition left heavyweights Bayern Munich and Juventus standing on the dock, and taking the stance of the neutral I was pretty happy at the back end of last season when I realised they would be returning.
Such teams have quality which makes competitions like this one, so it is a real shame that although the two aforementioned giants are back, two teams with real European Cup pedigree, 11 titles between them in fact, will not be taking part. Of Ajax and AC Milan it will surely be the Italians who will be missed the most. It seems almost unbelievable that there will be no Champions League football for Kaka, Shevchenko, Ronaldinho and all, and it is truly a tragedy that in what will almost certainly be his last season as a professional, Paulo Maldini is denied a final opportunity to grace a competition that he has won 5 times.
Nevertheless, in contrast to these absences it will be interesting to see how some of the surprising amount of unknown quantities do in their respective groups. Of the 32 teams, I count 5 with little or no Champions League previous. Zenit St. Petersburg, of course, have given us the most clues with their performances in the Uefa Cup and their recent defeat of Manchester Utd in Monaco, and Arshavin or no Arshavin I expect them to at least give Juventus and Real Madrid some problems. BATE, Aalborg, Anorthosis Famagusta and CFR Cluj's fates are admittedly far harder to predict, and airing on the side of caution I'd have to say that all 4 would be lucky to grab a Uefa Cup place.
Of all the groups, Group A already looks by far the most cut and dried. Last year's runners up Chelsea look to have improved, both in the dug-out, with "Big" Phil Scolari replacing the underwhelming but oddly effective Avram Grant, and on the pitch. Deco and Bosingwa were, Spain omitting, in my top 5 players of Euro 2008, and I found it extremely curious that the former didn't make it into the official "Team of the Tournament". With these additions it would be a brave man to bet against Roman's Roubles bringing his London outfit the ultimate success at the 6th time of asking.
Equally brave would be Roma if they include new face Riise in the side to face Chelsea, but own-goal threats aside they will prove ample challenge for first place and should be too strong for the other two teams. A strong squad will become stronger still if Julio Baptista can finally sustain his flashes of potential, and I would back Roma to make it to the knockout stages, where they will probably be tied with Man Utd and completely lie down. Bordeaux's recent European experience and Cluj's surprisingly cosmopolitan squad should still prove insubstantial.
Prediction:
1st: Chelsea
2nd: AS Roma
Uefa Cup Place: Bordeaux
Whipping Boys: CFR Cluj
In Group B we have Inter, whose desperation to halt their European underachievement is probably 2nd only to Chelsea's. Despite this underachievement they must be seen to be favourites for the group. Adriano returns to Inter from Brazil looking to prove his countless doubters wrong, but the age of Inter's squad could prove a stumbling block beyond this stage.
Werder Bremen have had some time away from the competition but they still have a strong squad, Germany stalgwart Frings plays in front of a tough defence and the excellent Diego will be looking to provide sufficient supply for Chelsea loanee Claudio Pizzaro.
The foray of Greeks Panathinaikos into Turkish Cyprus to face Famagusta should prove interesting, although having been to Famagusta it came as no suprise to learn that they rely on another town, Larnaca, to sustain their two football teams.
1st: Inter Milan
2nd: Werder Bremen
Uefa Cup Place: Panathinaikos
Whipping Boys: Anorthosis Famagusta
On paper, it would appear that Barcelona have the most favourable draw of the big sides, with respect to Shakhtar Donetsk, Basle and Sporting of course. For those who don't follow the Spanish League, the visit of the Lisbon club to the Nou Camp on September the 16th will be an early clue to how a Barcelona without Deco and Ronaldinho, arguably the most important players of their recent successes, will function. Euro 2008's highly impressive midfield duo of Xavi and Andres Iniesta will provide the fulcrum of new manager and Barcelona legend Pepe Guardiola's side. Any side in the world would struggle to keep Barca's front line quiet, which will usually contain 3 out of Alex Hleb, Thierry Henry, Samuel Eto'o and Lionel Messi. Bojan also showed promise in last year's group stage and expect to see him add to that this year.
Of the remaining 3 sides it is hard to see how this group will finish and we could be looking to here for some drama in the 6th fixture. Sporting have unfortunately proved to be a selling club in recent years, but at the time of writing have managed to hold on to captain and Portugal star Joao Moutinho. Backed up by Miguel Veloso and former Barcelona midfielder Fabio Rochemback, they could be the best bet to progress in 2nd place. Basle progressed through the 1st group stage in the 2002/2003 season but have had to settle mostly for Uefa Cup football since then, and I expect them to be re-familiarised with the competition before the season is out.
1st: Barcelona
2nd: Sporting Lisbon
Uefa Cup: FC Basle
Whipping Boys: Shakhtar Donetsk
Group D has managed to reunite many old friends for various reasons, all of which involving Liverpool. It might be considered a shame that the draw is not able to provide more variety in match ups, having linked Liverpool to Marseille for the 2nd time in 2 years and to PSV for the 3rd time in 3. The most interesting match up however must surely be when Liverpool take their star striker and former Atleti captain Fernando Torres back to the Vicente Calderon on October 22nd. It would be crass to make assumptions and discuss how Torres might celebrate in front of the Madrid fans, especially as they have made major improvements in defence in Tomáš Ujfaluši and John Heitinga. Their status as 4th seeds is not representative of the quality they possess, rather their european absence over recent seasons, and as such the group contains 4 very capable sides.
Liverpool have the most European pedigree, but have started the season poorly, needing 118 minutes to beat a plucky Standard Liege. Although they will probably be favourites for the group, they will have to improve, especially by deciding how better to use new boy Robbie Keane, if they want to finish ahead of the pack.
Atletico will feel they have replaced Torres to some extent with their new star "el Kun" Aguero, and have another goalscorer in Diego Forlan, a completely different player from his nightmare Manchester United days. Backing them up is a veritable wealth of creative talent, including Simao, Maxi Rodriguez and, speaking of old friends, former Liverpool forwards and Champions League winners Luis Garcia and Florent Sinema Pongolle. In addition, Atletico stormed through the tastiest of qualifying ties, thrashing Shalke, who have plenty of Champions League experience themselves, 4-1 on aggregate.
In PSV we have a side that is used to qualifying past this stage, 3 times in the last 4 years in fact, and in their 4 back-to-back Dutch league titles they are obviously a team in the habit of winning, which is a valuble quality to have. However, last season they missed talisman Philip Cocu in Europe and have lost keeper Gomez to Spurs, which may be another difficult loss to cope with. If Atletico play to potential they will surely provide a more likely option to progress.
Having won at Anfield early on, Marseille came close to progressing from last year's group until Liverpool came to the Stade Velodrome in the final match and won comfortably. This season the former winners of the competition have strengthened with hot prospect Hatem Ben Arfa, but voices within the club have admitted that, once Djibril Cisse was allowed to return to England, options for strikers were a bit thin on the ground. Only time will tell if they have enough up front to succeed.
1st: Liverpool
2nd: Atletico Madrid
Uefa Cup: PSV Eindhoven
Whipping Boys: Olympique de Marseille
Tune in soon for my thoughts on groups E-H, and a short look at beyond the group stage, possibly with a few more baseless and cavalier predictions!
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