Thursday, 11 September 2008

Preview to the Champions League Group Stage - Part 2!

As promised, here is the 2nd part of my preview to the upcoming Champion's League Group Stage, which commences this coming Thursday.

Kicking right off with Group E, we see the defending Champions back in action after their victory in Moscow. Manchester Utd have managed to weather the storm of Cristiano Ronaldo's seemingly inevitable departure, and so have maintained a squad that scarcely needed any improvement. Nevertheless the figure of Dimitar Berbatov taking the pitch in the red of Utd has the potential to recreate Eric Cantona's effect on the team more than any other player in the last 10 years. If Paul Scholes And Ryan Giggs manage to extend the recent renaissance of their careers we have seen in the past 2 years then the forecast is bleak for the opponents of Man Utd.
Familiar opponents in recent times, Celtic will hope to repeat their previous group stage successes in a group with the Red Devils, having progressed from Group F in 2006/07, managing to beat Utd along the way. The first British team ever to win this competition will admittedly have slim hopes of repeating that feat, but they will be hopeful of progression if they keep defeats to a bare minimum of 1 or 2.
Their competition for 2nd place will be El Submarino Amarillo, The "Yellow Submarine" of Villareal. Semi-finalists in 2006, they suffered a lull following that success and until last season were disappointing even in the league. Bolstered by a heavy core of Spanish triumphants fresh from Euro 2008 success, Senna, Capdevilla and Santi, Villareal also boasts veterans Edmilson and Robert Pires as well as Turkey's impressive Nihat. If their new, young, American strike pairing of Giuseppe Rossi and new recruit Jose Altidore can gel, they would certainly be my pick to progress ahead of Celtic.
Aalborg BK, it must be said, have slim chance of making it even into the Uefa Cup. However, it is in that competition from which they must draw the most hope, as it is there where we can see evidence of the possible giant killing exploits we have seen they are capable. For in the 2007/2008 competition, Italians Sampdoria were felled by the Danish outfit. Celtic fans will be interested to know that it was Kaunas, the conquerors of Rangers, who Aalborg had to beat in order to reach this stage.

Prediction:
1st: Manchester United
2nd: Villareal
Uefa Cup: Glasgow Celtic
Whipping Boys: Aalborg BK


A competition like this usually throws up the old "group of death" cliche, and in this case it must surely be reserved for Group F. 2 of the teams, Bayern Munich and Fiorentina, were removed by underdogs in the Semi Finals of last years Uefa Cup. Lyon and Steaua Bucharest have more recent Champions League experience, and even if Lyon haven't fully lived up to their "next big thing" tag (at least in Europe), both teams are capable of getting a result in this group on their day.
Despite their year long holiday, FC Bayern must be seen as the narrow favourites for this group. They made most of their improvements the summer following their failure to qualify for last seasons Champion's league. Luca Toni and Franck Ribery, two of those improvements, provide goals and creativity. German contingent Lahm, Schweinsteiger, Podolski and Klose are reliable, and more graft is provided by Lucio and captain Mark Van Bommel. Despite their absence Bayern have lost none of their pedigree.
Lyon are usually expected to qualify from their group, and although in a group like this no guarantees can be offered, they too have made improvements to a squad that was already rich with quality. Although losing Gregory Coupet and Hatem Ben Arfa will be seen as a blow, Lyon have continued their tradition of signing Lille's best players, and have added Jean Makoun. John Mensah has also arrived from Rennes.
Qualifying for this competition from Serie A is never a mean feat, so Fiorentina, even without considering their Uefa Cup experience, must not be underestimated. Add to that the fact that it was the mighty AC Milan that were forced to make way and we have a frightening prospect. It is a fantastic achievement being here, for a team that only a few years ago were struggling to even survive. It will be interesting to see how the Viola fans welcome back Luca Toni, one of the most important players of their revival, when Bayern Munich come to visit. One thing is for certain though, they will be looking for the likes of Adrian Mutu and Alberto Gilardino to cancel out any contribution he might make.
In Steaua Bucharest we have another former winner of the competition, with a multinational squad which in the last 2 years have served up some impressive performances at this stage. However, it must also be said that they have failed to progress from this stage in either of the past 2 seasons they have taken part, and although I expect the group to be close, and although they do not deserve the "whipping boys" tag, I still believe they will finish 4th.

Prediction:
1st: Bayern Munich
2nd: Lyon
Uefa Cup: Fiorentina
Whipping Boys: Steaua Bucharest


Group G contains two of the most recent reminders that anything can happen in this competition, and in Porto and Arsenal, 2 most unexpected finalists in 2004 and 2006 respectively, we possibly have the 2 least unexpected teams to qualify from this group. Both lost out narrowly in the knockout stages last year, and although Porto especially have lost players, notably Ricardo Quaresma to Inter, I expect that a repeat of last year will be the worst either team will achieve this year.
Arsenal have replaced Alex Hleb with Samir Nasri, but have failed to replace Mathieu Flamini. This lack of depth and battle in the middle of the park may cause a problem for Arsenal, but it might be their only one. Their creativity is renouned, and if Robin Van Persie can stay injury free (a big ask seeing as he has completed fewer than 20 full matches in his 4 years at Arsenal) they will be a threat to any team. Theo Walcott's continued emergence could also prove crucial.

The manner of Porto's exit to Shalke last year was unfortunate and they will be looking to progress further this year. However with the loss of Quaresma they lack real guile in the final third, and they will face real competition from Fenerbache. Fener are another team familiar with a recent and unlucky exit from this competition. Their most significant change from last year is undoubtably their manager. Luis Aragones is a controversial figure but his quality now is hard to doubt following Spain's glory in Austria and Switzerland. With him he has brought Daniel Guiza, the current holder of Spain's golden boot, added to a squad full of Turkish Euro 2008 semi-finalists and Brazilian flair in Champions League winner Roberto Carlos and captain Alex. I am going to go out on a limb and back them for qualification.


Prediction:
1st: Arsenal
2nd: Fenerbache
Uefa Cup: FC Porto
Whipping Boys: Dynamo Kiev



Finally we have Group H. The obvious clash in this group will see Real Madrid and Juventus face off, and not for the first time. Juventus could be said to have a weaker squad following their Serie B adventure but the amazing thing about them is that Gigi Buffon, Alex Del Piero, David Treseguet and Pavel Nedved, among others, remained and rode out the storm. It is ironic that some of the players who left, most notably Zambrotta at Milan, are missing out on Champion's League football that would have rewarded them had they stayed. Time will tell how the Juventus faithful react to Fabio Cannavaro's return to Turin.
Madrid have spent most of this summer chasing Cristiano Ronaldo, unsucessfully, and they have lost Robinho to the new wealth of Manchester City, so depending on what you think of Raphael Van Der Vaart Madrid could be said to be weaker going forward this season. Their performance in the competition since winning it in 2002 has been poor, and only time will tell if they will turn it around.
These two giants' main competition lies in new upstarts Zenit St. Petersburg. Having kept hold of Arshavin, Zenit will provide outstanding proof as to the gulf between the Champions League and Uefa Cup, and Zenit will be hoping that their experiences in one will make up for their complete lack of experience in the other.
Between the 3 of them they should provide far too much opposition for tiny BATE, who in my opinion would be forgiven for celebrating even a single point. However they are here on their own merit and I would be delighted if they were to prove me wrong.

Prediction

1st: Juventus
2nd: Real Madrid
Uefa Cup: Zenit St. Petersburg
Whipping Boys: BATE